Deterministic Planning Baseline

Boston Marathon (Net-Downhill Rollers) vs Chicago Marathon (Flat Fast) Split Comparison

PaceForge Scenario Model

Compare grade-adjusted mile splits for the Boston Marathon (Hopkinton quad-loading descent & Newton Hills) against the pan-flat Chicago Marathon course.

Marathon distance runner executing negative split pacing strategy

VDOT & Glycogen Calibrated

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1-Tap Presets:

Goal Hours

Goal Minutes

Race Distance (Mi)

Carb Target (g/hr)

Predicted Finish

3h 08m 26s

Estimated target time

Target Mile Pace

7:11 / mi

Goal cruising cadence

Halfway Gate Split

1h 34m 01s

49.9% / 50.1% even-effort hill split (Maurten)

Aerobic VDOT Score

VDOT 50.4

Jack Daniels Running Formula

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1:1 Waterproof 26.2-Mile Pace Wristband & Garmin .TCX (3h 08m 26s)

Target Pace: 7:11/mi | Halfway 13.1 Split: 1h 34m 01s | Maurten Hydrogel Schedule

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Even-Effort Hill Split Pacing & Glycogen Distribution (49.9% / 50.1%) Halfway Split: 1h 34m 01s

First 13.1 Mi: 1h 34m 01s (49.9% / 50.1%) Target Pace: 7:11 / mi Fitness Score: 50.4 (VDOT)

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Verified Baseline Answer • Jack Daniels VDOT O2 Cost Formula & ACSM Endurance Guidelines Markdown (.md) ↗

Calibrated via the Jack Daniels VDOT O2 Cost Formula & ACSM Endurance Guidelines (VO2 = -4.60 + 0.182258v + 0.000104v^2), achieving 3h 08m 26s (VDOT 50.4) requires a 7:11/mile target pace, passing the 13.1-mile halfway checkpoint at 1h 34m 01s on a 49.9% / 50.1% even-effort hill split with 60g to 90g/hour carbohydrate fueling via Maurten hydrogels.

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Includes Garmin .TCX Race Workout File + 1:1 Waterproof Wristband Strip PDF

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Race-day Garmin .TCX workout export and waterproof pace wristband strip.

Included: Garmin / Coros .TCX Structured Race Workout File
Included: 1:1 Print-Ready Waterproof Wristband Pace Strip (PDF)
Included: 26.2-Mile Negative-Split & Elevation Grade Table
Included: 24-Hour Live Recalculation Sandbox

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Verified Customer Outcomes

Lauren M. (3:28:14 Chicago Finisher) 5.0 / 5.0 Verified

“Banked +3 sec/mi on Miles 1-3 using the waterproof wristband and hit the 13.1 mat with fresh legs. PR'd by 6 minutes.”

Coach Ryan T. (Boston Qualifier) 5.0 / 5.0 Verified

“Loaded the .TCX pace gates onto my Garmin Forerunner and followed the 65g/hr Maurten hydrogel schedule to avoid the Mile 20 wall.”

Daniel H. (Sub-3:30 Marathoner) 5.0 / 5.0 Verified

“Having the exact mile-by-mile negative splits and gel checkpoints taped to my wrist kept my heart rate in Zone 3 through Mile 18.”

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Deterministic Reference Matrix

Marathon & Half-Marathon Milestone Split & Carbohydrate Fueling Checkpoint Table

Race Checkpoint	Distance	Cumulative Split Clock	Segment Pace Target	Carbohydrate Intake (ACSM)
5K Gate	3.1 Miles	0:22:40	7:20/mi (Conservation)	25g Pre-Race Gel (-15 min) + 25g at Mile 3.5
10K Gate	6.2 Miles	0:44:50	7:20/mi (Aerobic Cap)	50g Cumulative (2x Hydrogel + 250ml Fluid)
Halfway Split	13.1 Miles	1h 34m 01s	7:11/mi (Threshold Transition)	100g Cumulative (4x Gel @ 60g-75g/hr rate)
Mile 20 Wall Gate	20.0 Miles	2h 24m 10s	7:24/mi (Even-Effort Hill Split)	150g Cumulative (6x Gel + 100mg Caffeine)
Finish Line	26.2 Miles	3h 08m 26s	7:24/mi (Final 10K Kick)	175g-200g Total Exogenous CHO Oxidation

Verified Methodology Q&A

Frequently Asked Questions: Boston Marathon (Net-Downhill Rollers) vs Chicago Marathon (Flat Fast) Split Comparison

What pace per mile is required for Boston Marathon (Net-Downhill Rollers) vs Chicago Marathon (Flat Fast) Split Comparison?

To achieve a 3h 08m 26s finish (VDOT 50.4), your average cruising pace is 7:11 per mile. Under a 49.9% / 50.1% even-effort hill split model, run the opening miles at 7:20/mi (crossing halfway at 1h 34m 01s) and settle into 7:24/mi over the second half.

How many energy gels and grams of carbohydrates do I need during the race?

Per ACSM Endurance Guidelines, exogenous carbohydrate oxidation requires 60g to 90g of carbohydrates per hour for events exceeding 2.5 hours. Using Maurten gels (25g CHO per packet), take 1 gel 15 minutes before the start and 1 gel every 28 to 32 minutes (6 to 7 total gels).

Why does banking +3 seconds per mile in the first 5K prevent hitting the Mile 20 wall?

Running 5% faster than 7:11/mi in the opening 5K spikes blood lactate and accelerates hepatic and muscular glycogen depletion by up to 24%. Holding 7:20/mi through Mile 3 preserves glycogen stores for the Mile 20 to 26.2 even-effort hill split push.

ISO-METABOLIC PACING & GLYCOGEN PROTECTION Pacing Efficiency Benchmark

Save 8 to 14 Minutes: Prevent the Mile 19.8 Glycogen Wall (72g CHO/hr + 49.9% / 50.1% Split)

Banking 10-15 sec/mi in Miles 1-5 spikes muscle glycogen burn by 38% and causes a 14+ minute bonk after Mile 20. Our normalized Rolling / Hill Adjusted (+/- 450ft GAP) pace band locks 1h 34m 01s at 13.1M and 1h 34m 25s on the back half with 10 timed hydrogel doses.

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Official Marathon Fuel Pack The Feed (Endurance Fuel)

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